English Premier League soccer has set its eagerly anticipated return for June 17. Most teams have nine matches left, with a handful of clubs needing ten contests to wrap up their season.
Liverpool stands atop the PL table with 82 points. The Reds have not won an English title since the 1989-90 season, although they won last year’s Champions League trophy. If you are looking to bet the overall winner of this year’s Premier League, don’t bother because Liverpool is up 25 points on second-place Manchester City.
But just because the title’s decided, doesn’t mean there aren’t exciting betting opportunities over the final matches of this season.
Handicapping matches and futures bets won’t be as straightforward as it was before the Covid-19 outbreak for several reasons. Games will go off in empty stadiums where the usual home pitch advantage might not be a factor. Also, the schedule calls for three weeks with mid-week games, forcing players to play three games in seven days. The scheduling logjam will push managers to use more players to avoid injuries.
Despite the logistical scheduling nightmare and reduced workload for players, there are three futures bets worth your time and consideration.
Who Will Be the Top Goal Scorer?
The race for the Golden Boot is always cause for celebration each Premier League season. Given to the highest goal scorer, the Golden Boot carries prestige to the player that wins it every year.
At the time of suspension, Leicester City’s forward Jamie Vardy led the PL with 19 goals. Behind him is the dynamic goal scorer Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang with 17 goals.
Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah, the winner of the last two Golden Boots, is tied with Manchester City’s Sergio Aguero with 16 goals.
Vardy certainly is the favorite to win his first career Golden Boot. It is also important to note his club is pushing for a top-four spot in the final standings.
|DraftKings||Fox Bet||Bet Rivers||Bet MGM|
Despite winning at least a share of the last two Golden Boots, Salah’s odds are the worst because he is three goals behind Vardy, and his club has almost clinched the title. Aguero stands a much better chance of catching the leaders. But with Man City playing for the Champions League title, the forward should take matches to conserve energy.
Aubameyang is the most direct threat to Vardy. His Arsenal club sits back in 9th place, and they are not playing in any other competitions. He could easily challenge Vardy if the Leicester City forward goes cold, and Aubameyang strings together a few consecutive games with a goal.
Vardy sits in the driver seat with DraftKings (+180) and the remaining three sportsbooks. With Leicester City sitting in third place by five points, the club will continue to push hard to secure that spot to make next year’s Champions League. Vardy’s only knock is the possibility of injury as his age is 33 years old.
Who is Going to Be Relegated?
Finishing in the bottom three of the Premier League means relegation to the lower level EFL Championship League the following season. The demotion costs the clubs untold millions in sponsorship and television money. For players, being relegated means they no longer play on the brightest soccer stage the world has to offer.
When looking at the odds, there are six clubs in legitimate danger of falling into the bottom three.
|Draft Kings||Fox Bet||Bet MGM|
|Brighton & Howe||+300||+275||+275|
For five of these six teams, winning, drawing, or losing one match will make their odds of relegation wildly fluctuate. Norwich has struggled to find their footing all season. Even though they are just six points from the first safe team, they’ve only won five games all year. Norwich’s odds are high at all four sportsbooks with Fox Bet leading the pack at -2000.
Where it gets interesting is with the remaining five clubs. Four points separate Brighton & Howe in 15th place with 29 points and 19th place Aston Villa with 25 points. The remaining three teams have 27 points entering the last quarter of the 2019-20 season.
With wins counting as three points, the fight to avoid the remaining two relegation spots should be an all-out war.
Advanced metrics sites like FiveThirtyEight put Aston Villa’s chance at relegation at 71% probability. Aston’s odds for relegation vary from -250 at DraftKings to -278 at BetMGM. Bournemouth is next with -118 odds at DraftKings and -125 odds at the other two sportsbooks on our table. FiveThirtyEight gives Bournemouth a 51% chance of relegation.
Finally, West Ham, Watford, and Brighton & Howe all have favorable odds of remaining in the Premier League. None have over 31% probability in FiveThirtyEight’s metrics. DraftKings has set the odds of the last three teams with West Ham at +175, Watford at +225, and Brighton & Howe at +300.
What Teams Will Finish in the Top Four?
Finishing in the Premier League’s top four means entry into the lucrative Champions League tournament the following season. This wrinkle in the final standings is another fun race to follow when the season returns. Potential to claim millions of dollars in the Champions League gives clubs even more reason to finish strong.
|DraftKings||Fox Bet||Bet Rivers||Bet MGM|
Leicester City sits in third place, eight points ahead of fifth-place Manchester United. All four Colorado sportsbooks on our list place Leicester at the top of making the top four at -167 odds.
The sportsbooks have also deemed the final top 4 spot as a battle between Chelsea and Man United. Chelsea stands as the favorite with -167 odds to grab the last position in the top 4 race. Man United is +175 at DraftKings, although they are just three points behind Chelsea. The two teams do not play again the remainder of the season.
There are four other teams on the outside looking in. The Colorado sportsbooks are placing them all as long shots to clip the two clubs ahead of them. Wolverhampton has the best odds of the remaining clubs with odds of +700 at Fox Bet and BetMGM and +800 at DraftKings and Bet Rivers.